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Expert Analysis and Commentary: Russia / Ukraine Conflict

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Our experts are seasoned media commentators and regularly featured in print media, TV, radio, and online channels. We comment on a wide range of business risks and current affairs, ranging from the U.S. election, Russian politics, sanctions, and the Iranian protests, to the global impact of geopolitical tensions on energy and commodities.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, our team has worked with clients and media alike to advise on the wider impacts of the conflict.

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Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Fallout From the Death of Alexei Navalny & Impacts on Russia’s Western Relations

The death of Alexei Navalny, a leading Russian opposition figure with a modern vision for the country, underscores a critical juncture in Russian politics and its impact on Western relations. In this February 2024 interview with Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe, Livia Paggi discusses the repercussions of his death as well as challenges posed by Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s enduring strategy.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the video

 
Financial Times
Financial Times

Calls to Release Detained Economist Who Criticized Azerbaijan – EU Energy Deal

The family of a London-based economist arrested in Azerbaijan on charges of religious extremism is calling on the West to help gain his release. In this November 2023 Financial Times article, Livia Paggi discusses the political and economic factors contributing to the detention of Gubad Ibadoghlu, a critic of a 2022 agreement to double supplies of Azeri gas to Europe, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the article

 
Sky News
Sky News

Plane Crash of Wagner Group Chief Shows Putin is Reclaiming Power

The announced death of Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin is regaining political control, says Livia Paggi in this August 2023 Sky News interview. The deadly crash is a message to others that may seek to challenge Putin’s power; that he is the “mastermind of revenge,” Paggi says. She also notes that the loss of Prigozhin and his allies creates a power vacuum within the Wagner Group that could weaken its influence in Africa.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the interview

 
Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Putin’s Bid to Reassert Kremlin Authority Is Showing Cracks

While Russian President Vladimir Putin may have successfully subdued the uprising by mercenary troops in the war with Ukraine, Livia Paggi is quoted in this June 2023 Bloomberg article about what is next for him. Despite exiling the rebel mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, Paggi views Putin as a weakened leader. However, she also questions the possible impact of a regime change on Russia and the war.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the article

 
Photo Credit: The Moscow Times / Alexei Mayshev / RIA Novosti / kremlin.ru
Photo Credit: The Moscow Times / Alexei Mayshev / RIA Novosti / kremlin.ru

Failed Rebellion Strains Russia-China Partnership

In the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed insurrection that saw his Wagner Group mercenaries advance on Moscow, Livia Paggi is quoted about the strain the rebellion has placed on the alliance between Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi Jingping. Paggi explains in this June 2023 article from The Moscow Times how the insurrection has weakened the Putin regime in the eyes of the Chinese government.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the article

 
Vlast
Vlast

Kazakhstan Still Struggles to Bring Oil Across the Caspian

With the Russia-Ukraine conflict entering a second year, Chris Tooke talks about the struggles of the government of Kazakhstan to find alternative routes for the export of its oil that bypass Russia. In this March 2023 article published by Kazakh online media outlet Vlast, Tooke discusses the pipeline politics still happening in the region.

Chris Tooke is a Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice and a leading specialist on political and regulatory risks in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

>>View the article

 
Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Lack of U.S., EU Unity Complicates Negotiations with Russia

Livia Paggi examines the approach of the United States and the European Union toward Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. In this January 2022 interview on Bloomberg TV, Paggi explains the varying interests that different stakeholders have and how that complicates negotiations with Russia, including the effect of EU sanctions on the energy sector.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the video

 
Moscow Times | AP Images
Moscow Times | AP Images

As Markets Crash and War Fears Grow, Russia’s Business Elite Suffers in Silence

Chris Tooke talks about the triggering events for companies to implement contingency plans as the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated. In the January 2022 edition of The Moscow Times, Tooke also notes how the withdrawal of U.S. and U.K. Embassy personnel has put businesses on alert.

Chris Tooke is a Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice and a leading specialist on political and regulatory risks in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

>>View the article

 
Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Russia’s Allies

Chris Tooke outlines who Russia’s allies are as the Russia-Ukraine conflict heats up, in this January 2022 interview on Bloomberg TV’s Arabic language channel.

Chris Tooke is a Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice and a leading specialist on political and regulatory risks in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

>>View the video (Arabic)

 
Sky News
Sky News

Russia’s Loss of Influence

In this January 2022 television interview on Ian King Live, Sky News, Livia Paggi discusses how Russia’s loss of influence over the countries that border it impacts its approach to Ukraine. Paggi also sheds light on the behind-the-scenes negotiations before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the video

 
Independent
Independent

Russian Sanctions

Dan Arenson is quoted about the effect of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Arenson comments on the drop in Russia’s living standards in this March 2022 article published by The Independent.

Dan Arenson is a Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice, managing a broad range of projects providing geopolitical and operational guidance to companies across a diverse set of geographies.

>>View the article

 
FDI Intelligence
FDI Intelligence

Russian Sanction Ukraine War and Foreign Investment

Livia Paggi is quoted about the likelihood of foreign tech companies exiting Russia in this February 2022 article published by FDI Intelligence. Paggi notes the growing difficulty of doing business in Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and security risks for personnel working at multinationals in Ukraine.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the article

 
Reuters
Reuters

Early U.S. Sanctions on Russia

Philip Worman explains that U.S. sanctions on a Russian bank are an early warning shot in this February 2022 interview with Reuters video.

Philip Worman is a Senior Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice with more than 20 years of experience in the political risk, business intelligence, and investigations sector.

>>View the video

 
Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Putin’s War Is Deepening a Tussle for Influence in Central Asia

Chris Tooke is featured in this September 2022 article published by Bloomberg on Kazakhstan’s relationship with Russia from the perspective of business, trade, and security.

Chris Tooke is a Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice and a leading specialist on political and regulatory risks in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

>>View the article

 
The Journal
The Journal

Risk of Unrest

In this August 2022 article published by The Journal of the Chartered Insurance Institute, Livia Paggi says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will stoke more civil unrest that is happening around the world.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the article

 
BBC Sounds
BBC Sounds

Russia Halts Gas Deliveries to Germany

In this September 2022 radio program on the BBC’s The World Tonight, Philip Worman discusses the price cap on Russian oil because of its invasion of Ukraine.

Philip Worman is a Senior Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice with more than 20 years of experience in the political risk, business intelligence, and investigations sector.

>>Listen to the program

 
Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Russia-Ukraine War

Dan Arenson discusses the global implications of the Russia/Ukraine conflict in this March 2022 interview on Bloomberg Asharq Business.

Dan Arenson is a Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice, managing a broad range of projects providing geopolitical and operational guidance to companies across a diverse set of geographies.

>>View the video (Arabic)

 
Bloomberg
Bloomberg

Marking Six Months of the War in Ukraine

Livia Paggi tells Bloomberg Surveillance: Early Edition in this August 2022 interview that Russia is trying to prevent Ukraine from forging stronger ties with the West. Paggi discusses the weaponization of oil through soaring prices as winter approaches.

Livia Paggi is a Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice who advises multinational clients on doing business successfully in some of the world’s most challenging markets.

>>View the video

 
FDi Intelligence
FDi Intelligence

Ukraine War: The New Price of Risk

In this July 2022 interview with FDI Intelligence, Chris Tooke speaks about the invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia’s President Putin. Tooke explains how the war has exacerbated risks in the surrounding region, including nations such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Chris Tooke is a Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice and a leading specialist on political and regulatory risks in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

>>View the video

 
BBC News
BBC News

Russia-Ukraine Tensions

Philip Worman discusses how allowing Ukraine into NATO crosses a red line for Russia. In this interview with BBC News World Business Report in February 2022, Worman also examines sanctions that could be imposed by the European Union and pressure by the United States on Germany, which has considerable oil interests tied to Russia.

Philip Worman is a Senior Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Global Investigations practice with more than 20 years of experience in the political risk, business intelligence, and investigations sector.

>>View the video

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This publication is for educational and general information purposes only. It may contain errors and is provided as is. It is not intended as specific advice, legal, or otherwise. Opinions and views are not necessarily those of J.S. Held or its affiliates and it should not be presumed that J.S. Held subscribes to any particular method, interpretation, or analysis merely because it appears in this publication. We disclaim any representation and/or warranty regarding the accuracy, timeliness, quality, or applicability of any of the contents. You should not act, or fail to act, in reliance on this publication and we disclaim all liability in respect to such actions or failure to act. We assume no responsibility for information contained in this publication and disclaim all liability and damages in respect to such information. This publication is not a substitute for competent legal advice. The content herein may be updated or otherwise modified without notice.

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