Insights
The Southern California wildfires in January 2025 are expected to be one of the costliest natural disasters in United States (US) history, with economic losses currently ranging between $95 billion and $164 billion according to the University of California – Los Angeles (UCLA). Insured losses, according to UCLA, are estimated to be around $75 billion. [1]
Wildfires in Southern California are common. Santa Ana wind events often promote the rapid growth of wildfires even if they have no direct relationship to the origin of the fire. Santa Ana winds— characterized by warm, dry, and often strong winds blowing from the land to the ocean—are a common occurrence each year, primarily during the fall and winter months, and are often marked by increased fire danger.
The January 2025 wildfires in the Los Angeles area were no exception to this rule; powerful Santa Ana winds, critical-to-extreme fire weather conditions, and severe drought were all in place during early January across the region. This followed many months of below-normal precipitation, which was preceded by a rainy 2023-2024 winter season and an even rainier 2022-2023 rainy season. Ultimately, these heavy rain events associated with winter storms and atmospheric rivers were followed by an extended drier-than-normal period leading up to January 2025.
In this paper we discuss the threat of wildfires, especially as it concerns the state of California, the damage that wildfires and wildfire smoke can cause, how smoke damage is assessed and remediated, and the impacts to air quality during and following wildfire events. The following information may be of particular interest to insurance companies, lawyers, industry, and the public.
Put simply, wildfires are the large-scale, uncontrolled burning of natural vegetation and other materials/fuels such as structures and building materials, electrical equipment and components, vehicles/engines/machinery, or chemicals. They produce intense heat and updrafts which disperse particulate matter (PM) into the air which can then travel great distances. These fires and the smoke they produce are influenced by three primary factors—the preceding and concurrent weather, the current phase of the fire, and the topography of the immediate and surrounding land. High winds, for instance, can affect the speed and intensity with which wildfires spread and determine where and how far away large and small particles (mainly solids like char and ash but also liquid and gas particles) within smoke settle. The concentration of particle matter can also depend on whether a fire has just begun or whether it is in its smoldering phase, wherein emissions increase due to incomplete combustion.
Naturally, during rainy seasons, vegetation growth is promoted and even enhanced. However, during droughts and dry periods, this vegetation dries, dies, or goes dormant, leaving ample fuel, if left unkept, for wildfire growth, such as the devastation which occurred in January 2025. Once these fires initiate, their spread can be difficult to control due to high wind gusts associated with the Santa Ana winds, especially in elevated and rough terrain. This was particularly the case for both the Palisades and Eaton Fires.
There have been significant increases in wildfire frequency and severity in recent years. In fact, the eight largest recorded wildfires in California have all occurred since 2017. In 2017 and 2018, California saw insured losses in excess of $10 billion, and in 2020 alone, insured losses were estimated between $5-9 billion. Though wildfires have always been a natural threat to the state, California now exists in a continuously heightened state of alert.
Presently, there are more than 2.3 million homes in California with a collective estimated value of $343 billion, placing the state at the top of the list of states with the greatest wildfire insurance risks, with runners-up including Idaho, Arizona, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Utah, Kentucky, Washington, Texas, Oregon, and Colorado.
When it comes to staying up-to-date and ahead of unfolding wildfire events, meteorologists are commonly called upon to perform a variety of specialized services including, but not limited to:
Figure 1 - National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center forecast for wildfire weather conditions on January 8, 2025.
Figure 2 - U.S. Drought Monitor conditions in California as of January 7, 2025.
Figure 3 - Monthly measured precipitation recorded at Los Angeles International Airport between October 2022 and January 2025.
Figure 4 - Monthly measured precipitation departure from normal monthly precipitation recorded at Los Angeles International Airport between October 2022 and January 2025.
Smoke generated by wildfires can take on characteristics based on a number of contributing factors. Generally made up of solid, liquid, and gas particles, smoke can comprise a host of various substances depending on fuel sources, including, but not limited to:
Wildfire smoke and the substances composing it are able to travel hundreds and even thousands of miles under the right conditions and can even cross continents. This means that smoke can affect air quality and quality of life in areas far from the actual fire.
Wildfire smoke is capable of impacting property to varying degrees, and thus assessments conducted by experts are necessary when determining the extent to which property has been impacted. Primary indicators tested for include combustion byproducts such as ash and char from vegetative sources (burned pollen, plant parts, phytoliths, and burned soil particles), and “unburned” soil and vegetation particles.
Assessments should include a visual inspection, qualitative residue assessments, and can include sampling with quantitative lab analyses and moisture and mold assessments, as necessary. Inspectors will typically want to examine:
When investigators sample surfaces for evidence of smoke impact, three primary methods are utilized—micro-vacuum sampling, wipe sampling, and tape-lift sampling:
When wildfire smoke impact is suspected, and the wildfire has been contained, it is important to evaluate and mitigate as soon as possible as this can help limit particle dispersion. Equally important is verifying proper mitigation as soon as mitigation activities are complete. This helps to validate that the cleaning procedures utilized were effective.
Fortunately, the vast majority of materials, components, contents, and structural elements are able to be salvaged via restoration by appropriate experts following exposure from smoke. Examples of materials that are generally considered as salvageable following assessment by environmental investigators and remediation specialists include:
Wildfires are happening more often [2] and have become a serious issue in North America. Wildfires have the potential to release pollutants such as PM, VOCs, semi-VOCs, heavy metals, and regulated materials. [3] [4] These pollutant emissions can significantly impact air quality and negatively impact public health. PM, PM10 (particulate matter with diameters that are 10 micrometers and small) and PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameters that are 2.5 micrometers and smaller) emissions from the wildland fires (wildfires and prescribed fires) are a major part of wildfire smoke. These wildland fires account for 40% of the country’s PM emissions. [5]
In recent years, increasing wildfire activity in the Western US and Canada has impacted air quality in the majority of the US. After the wildfires are extinguished or fully contained, lingering smoke can continue to affect air quality as the fires smolder. The US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Exceptional Events Rule [6] allows the states to exclude certain air quality data that result from exceptional events, such as wildfires from regulatory assessments and decisions. This has raised questions about the accuracy and reliability of air quality data and whether current standards effectively capture the impacts of wildfires. This has created significant challenges for the regulatory requirements under the Clean Air Act (CAA). As wildfires and wildfire smoke increasingly cause air pollution, understanding their impact on air quality and effects on public health has become crucial for policymakers.
Unlike industrial emissions, which are controlled and predictable through technology and regulatory permits, wildfires are influenced by complex factors such as climate change, severe dust storms, forest management practices, and natural variability. During and after the wildfire events, the air quality can experience temporary spikes leading to unsafe levels of PM2.5 and ozone. For example, during the 2018 wildfires in Portland, Oregon, the air quality index (AQI) reached unhealthy levels above 151. [7] The AQI is a tool used to communicate how clean or polluted the air is in a specific area. The AQI provides a numerical value and a color code to indicate the level of air pollution and its potential health effects. The AQI (Figure 5) helps people understand the quality of air they breathe and take appropriate actions to protect their health.
Figure 5 - AQI, color codes, and their meanings. [8]
There are three major stakeholders as it concerns understanding/researching, preparing for, managing, and preventing the many impacts of wildfires and wildfire smoke, and each has a crucial role to play. Their work and contributions help determine the degree to which public health, safety, and general welfare are impacted when wildfires occur. They include:
The EPA has been leading the way on establishing air quality standards under the CAA. The EPA’s mission, especially with the CAA, is to protect public health and the environment by ensuring that the air quality across the US meets the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). [9] When wildfires occur, they often cause short term spikes in PM2.5 and ozone levels, making it hard for some areas to meet the NAAQS standards. Wildfire smoke can also travel long distances, affecting air quality in regions far from the fires and impacting public health. Under the CAA, the EPA’s job is to enforce standards that keep the air clean and safe to breath, even when natural events cause temporary declines in air quality. However, the CAA also recognizes that it may not be appropriate to use the monitoring data influenced by “exceptional” events (e.g. wildfires) that are collected by the ambient air quality monitoring network when making certain regulatory determinations.6
Industry stakeholders argue that wildfires are natural events that are made worse by climate trends and forest mismanagement, not by individual industrial operations. They believe the CAA should differentiate between human-caused emissions and those from natural events. Penalizing industries for air quality issues caused by wildfires would be unfair. Various industries are actively investing in energy efficiency, recycling, and cleaner technologies to enhance sustainability and reduce environmental impact. These efforts not only demonstrate the industry’s efforts toward reducing climate change but also help mitigate wildfire risks indirectly.
The public and public health advocates emphasize that wildfires significantly increase air pollution, especially when the NAAQS are exceeded. This directly impacts public health, well-being, and quality of life. Wildfire smoke can cause respiratory problems, cardiovascular issues, and other health complications, particularly among vulnerable populations such as the elderly and children. [10] Therefore, the public has a crucial role in providing feedback to the EPA and the states on regulations and policies related to air quality and wildfires. The public should actively participate, voice their concerns, and influence decision making.
Obtaining a proper understanding of wildfire risk is important for quantifying insurance carrier exposure risk. This can be complicated, as there are many variable factors such as drought conditions, vegetation growth, and even urban expansion and development. Following wildfire events, understanding the wide variety of weather conditions at loss locations can prove vital, from wind speeds and directions to stability conditions promoting the trapping of smoke and pollutants near the ground. Meteorologists have long proven to be an excellent resource in wildfire risk and post-event analysis.
Because wildfires and wildfire smoke significantly impact property, air quality, and public health, it is important for all stakeholders to work together to develop strategies that balance the immediate need for public safety, property and infrastructural safety, and air quality protection. Some of these initiatives could include the following:
Figure 6 – Initiatives that can help all stakeholders address the need for public safety, property and infrastructural safety, and air quality protection.
This effort should be seen not just as working to combat and mitigate the effects of wildfires, but also as an opportunity for collaboration among regulatory agencies, industry, and the public. A balanced and collaborative path forward keeps each stakeholder engaged and mutually accountable, while at the same time focusing on the common goal of cleaner air, safer communities, prosperity, and a more sustainable future.
We would like to thank our colleagues Daniel Schreiber, CCM, AJ Karna, MS, and Bill Zoeller for providing insights and expertise that greatly assisted this research.
Daniel Schreiber is a Senior Vice President in J.S. Held's Forensic Meteorology service line. He is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist with over 10 years of experience in military, aviation, and severe weather operations. Mr. Schreiber has provided consulting and expert services for both plaintiff and defense law firms, as well as insurance adjusters, appraisers, umpires, and policyholders throughout North America. He has been consulted and/or retained as an expert in over 850 matters and has testified in both depositions and during trials in state and federal courts. He regularly plays an integral role in multi-million-dollar insurance disputes and injury/wrongful death lawsuits from coast to coast. Before joining J.S. Held, Dan was a highly successful meteorology business owner.
Dan can be reached at [email protected] or +1 830 453 0255.
AJ Karna is a Senior Director in J.S. Held’s Energy & Power – Energy & Environmental Advisory service line and specializes in air quality permitting and compliance. With over 13 years of consulting experience, he excels in environmental air permitting, compliance, and EPCRA projects, including Tier II and Toxic Release Inventory Reporting. AJ has led teams, mentored staff, and managed complex projects to ensure regulatory compliance and environmental stewardship. He has provided expert consultation on permit applications, negotiated with regulatory agencies, and designed studies to support compliance. AJ has also taught and coached clients and colleagues on air permitting and compliance and has presented at industry conferences. He supports various industries, including power plants and refineries, and actively participates in air permit application meetings, offering valuable insights and negotiating favorable terms.
AJ can be reached at [email protected] or +1 314 816 0246.
Bill Zoeller oversees the Industrial Hygiene & the Built Environment Service Line within J.S. Held’s Environmental, Health & Safety practice. Bill is a graduate of the University of Wisconsin La Crosse with a degree in Microbiology and BioMedical Science. He has over two decades of industrial hygiene experience with project design and assessment of remediation from catastrophic events such as water, fire, and biological impacts to properties, as well as regulated materials assessments and pollution claims. Bill has a wide range of project experience from residential to large, complex multi-million-dollar projects in manufacturing, healthcare, educational, food manufacturing, and multi-family properties.
Bill can be reached at [email protected] or +1 920 442 4195.
[3] https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/frequently-asked-questions-wildfire-emissions
[4] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10862657/
[5] https://www.epa.gov/sciencematters/danger-wildland-fire-smoke-public-health
[7] https://www.upbeacon.com/article/2018/08/air-quality-worsens
[8] https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/
[9] https://www.epa.gov/criteria-air-pollutants/naaqs-table
[10] https://www.epa.gov/wildfire-smoke-course/health-effects-attributed-wildfire-smoke
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