Tariffs and Trade Series: Effects on Agriculture Operations and Markets

This video is the fourth installment in a series examining the multifaceted impacts of tariff and trade policies. By delving into the nuances of these policies, we aim to provide valuable insights and perspectives that will inform strategic business decision-making and foster resilience in an increasingly volatile global market. Future papers in this series will explore the specific implications for key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and construction, offering targeted analysis and recommendations to help businesses navigate and thrive amidst evolving trade landscapes.

Publication Date: April 15, 2025

Introduction

With much evolving information currently surrounding tariffs, sectors and markets around the world are facing uncertainty in how to adapt and respond to sudden changes in the trade landscape. 

In the video linked below, Sue Goll, David Kieffer, and Andrea Korney discuss the impacts of tariffs specifically on agricultural operations and related markets, addressing key questions such as:

• How will tariffs impact all aspects of an entire farming operation?
• Will US operations turn their focus more toward domestic business?
• What happens to supply and demand in a tariff environment?
• What strategies can agricultural companies consider using to mitigate potential risk?

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Discussion Transcript

Dori Marlin: Clearly, we know there's a lot of evolving information around the tariffs and what's happening in the world. David, I would love it if you can kind of outline for us how these changes will impact all aspects of a farming operation.

David Kieffer: Dori, thank you and glad to help you with that question. So we work primarily with all-encompassing aspects of a farm, be it a smaller operating farm up to large industrial sized-farms. In terms of the impacts that we are starting to see and expect to see, we absolutely anticipate that the tariffs will impact the top line. Revenues are absolutely going to be impacted, particularly for farms that have significant amounts of exports. We don't know exactly what those metrics are yet, but given the percentages, we do anticipate that over the course of '25 and certainly probably into '26, the top line is going to be adjusted and likely there's going to be downward pressure on that. 

The other aspect that's absolutely going to be impacted is the expense lines. As an example, if a farmer has a bunch of industrial machinery that is part of a production line and they need to get parts or something related to that, and they have to import that, there's going to be timing impacts, cost impacts, and we do expect that the expenses will go up.

So this is a very fundamental, basic 101 answer, but income is probably going to be impacted down and expenses are gonna be impacted up, which creates sort of a crunch on your earnings, your margins, your working capital. I think my takeaway for your question or my primary answer to your question in the realm that we deal, is we feel like the working capital aspect and lenders that are lending money into businesses as lines of credit are going to be challenged. Borrowers are going to have issues with needing to draw on those lines of working capital, lenders perhaps will be extending out to the fullest amounts of those lines of credit, which is going to create strain. How fast that happens? I could not tell you, but we all we are already seeing some impact and do anticipate that this is not going to be easy sledding, if you will.

Dori: Based on everything that you just shared with us, David -- Sue, does the US become a more domestically-based business then in agriculture if that's the case?

Sue Goll: I believe that in some arenas that will be the case. But overall, when you think about the US and its position in world agricultural products, the world simply cannot function without US ag products.

For example, think of corn. We are the world's largest producer and exporter of corn around the world, and it is by a huge margin that we are the largest. There are a couple other regions that produce a fair amount, however, those regions are very limited and what if one of those has some difficulties? It could be political. It could be economical. It could be logistics. It could be weather-related. The world would have to come back to the US in order to get that supply. This year, we saw that happen corn. We saw that there were issues in South America using all of those examples I just gave that limited their ability to export and the US stepped in and picked those up.

We normally in the US do not export a great deal of corn [in the] first quarter, yet we had phenomenal exports of corn first quarter this year, in spite of the fact that it was more expensive to come to the US because other parts of the world couldn't fill those needs. Bottom line, tariffs will not stop them from coming to the US if necessary. The world needs to eat.

Dori: Andrea, what happens to supply and demand then, in a tariff environment? And is there a strategy that companies can be employing to use and and get by in this time?

Andrea Korney: Yeah, I think especially when you're talking about agriculture as an industry. Tariffs are absolutely a huge impact, however, one of the things about agriculture that Sue referred to, tariffs are not the only thing that impacts supply and demand with ag products.

Weather and climate; input costs for things like water, labor, disease, and pest control; consumer preferences, like what people want to eat and what's available; and then also regulatory policies beyond tariffs; global conflicts; and there's geopolitical events that happen. All of these things impact the supply that's available from any country globally that could be producing different agricultural products. And because of that, using the corn example is a great one, that it may mean that the only opportunity is to buy from a country that is experiencing very high tariffs. And the thing to remember when we're looking at tariffs -- it is retaliatory, right? Each country is placing and deciding on what these tariffs are going to be. You know, to the United States is the same way outside, so it becomes a math exercise, right? What's available, when it's available, and at what price tag it's available.

One of the strategies that I like to talk about is tariff engineering and understanding what's available, and doing that modeling exercise around how much you're going to spend if you get it from where. Some of the other things that need to be taken into account though is logistics -- how fast can you get it? And quality is a huge part to consider here as well. If you're buying from other parts of the world, how quickly can you get it? Can the food last? How will it be shipped? How will be stored? So in the end, understanding the entire value chain of agricultural products from raw material, seeds, fertilizer, etc., all the way through to end product. Whether it's a frozen strawberry or a pureed strawberry, those all have different tax and tariff import rates and export rates, so it's important to understand that entire value chain, and of course, we can help you to do that if you need to.

Dori: Well, thank you all for your insights here. We have a lot of other thought leadership around what's happening with the tariffs, both generally speaking and industry specific at jsheld.com/insights, and of course we will be following further developments.

More About Our Contributors

Sue Goll is an Assistant Vice President in J.S. Held’s Forensic Accounting – Insurance Services practice and an agricultural consultant with over 30 years of experience in cash grains and futures markets. She has worked at A.E. Staley as a grain merchandiser, trading soybeans, soymeal, and corn out of the Des Moines, Iowa soybean processing plant, and the Lafayette, Indiana wet milling corn plants. As Grain Division Manager in Lafayette, Ms. Goll oversaw grain merchandising, basis trading, future spreads, truck and rail logistics, contracting with specialty corn growers and originated corn for two wet milling plants. She also managed offsetting hedge and spread strategies for the Lafayette futures position. Ms. Goll spent the next two years as a farm market advisor for a farm advisory firm assisting producers in cost of production analysis, grain storage management, crops marketing and hedging with futures and options contracts. She joined the Chicago Board of Trade in 1989. During her six years with the exchange, she traveled worldwide teaching the use of agricultural futures and options markets. Over her career, Ms. Goll has been a member of various Grain and Feed organizations and the National Grain and Feed Association.

Sue can be reached at [email protected] or +1 773 249 9178.

David Kieffer is a Senior Managing Director in J.S. Held’s Strategic Advisory practice. David is an accomplished court-appointed receiver and restructuring consultant who delivers effective solutions for complex situations caused by illiquidity, fraud, and shareholder disputes. Whether serving as a fiduciary or advising creditors, shareholders, or other stakeholders, he quickly uncovers the sources of the problems and then designs and manages a path to resolution. David has managed the stabilization, repositioning, and completion of construction, leasing, and disposition of real estate assets for wide-ranging engagements. His experience spans all asset classes, including commercial and industrial buildings, multi-family housing, retail, mixed-use projects, senior housing, raw land, agricultural properties, hotels and motels, gas stations, golf courses, food and beverage operations, dairy farms, and residential property portfolios. David is skilled at case management, property management, development and construction, dispute resolution, asset disposition, brokerage, and environmental and regulatory issues.

David can be reached at [email protected] or +1 213 235 0602.

Andrea Korney is Vice President of Sustainability for J.S. Held’s ESG & EHS Digital Solutions group. She is a global advisor specializing in climate solutions, environmental and social sustainability, carbon management, and strategic supply chain sustainability. 

Andrea has extensive experience in carbon reduction strategies, responsible sourcing, and sustainable finance, working across industries such as energy, mining, and manufacturing. She also provides expert witness testimony on environmental and sustainability matters, offering authoritative insights in legal and regulatory contexts. In addition to her advisory work, Andrea actively contributes to shaping sustainability policies and initiatives through her participation on several boards. She has served as an Ambassador to the U.S. Department of Energy, where she supported strategic discussions on clean energy transition and climate resilience. Her expertise in climate risk assessment, ESG reporting frameworks (CSRD, TCFD, SBTi), and ethical supply chain governance make her a recognized thought leader, dedicated to advancing corporate responsibility and driving impactful sustainability solutions on a global scale.

Andrea can be reached at [email protected] or +1 725 567 0668.

This communication may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are based on J.S. Held’s current expectations and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.  This material is for informational purposes only and is provided ‘as is’ without any warranties and J.S. Held assumes no liability for errors, omissions, or any actions taken based on this material.